The opening kickoff for the 2023 NFL season hasn’t happened yet, but some teams already have a tougher 17-game slate than others.
The NFL schedule format allowed teams to figure out their 2023 opponents the moment the 2022 regular season ended. Along with divisional rivalries and other rotation aspects that are part of the annual schedule, there is another factor that generally hurts contenders while exciting fans.
Results from the prior season have an impact on the next season’s schedule. Three games on each team’s schedule are based solely on where it placed within its division, giving reigning division winners tougher, more exciting matchups the following season and division bottom dwellers some easier ones.
With all of those factors in mind and the 2023 season commencing soon, let’s look at the teams with the hardest and easiest slates this year.
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Which team has the hardest schedule in 2023?
The Philadelphia Eagles’ road back to the Super Bowl will feature some stiff competition. The reigning NFC champions have the toughest schedule for 2023 based on their opponents’ record from the 2022 season.
Six of their games come against their NFC East foes – all of whom finished .500 or above in 2022. They will also play the full NFC West and AFC East. For the cherry on top, the Eagles’ remaining games are against three division winners from 2022 in the Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs.
NFL
Beyond 2022 win percentage, Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis used 2023 win projections to rank each team’s schedule and found that the New England Patriots have the toughest slate.
Bill Belichick’s squad is in a loaded AFC East that features the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, two playoff teams from 2022, along with Aaron Rodgers and the new-look New York Jets. The team also faces the full AFC West and NFC East. The easiest part of its schedule comes from the three games based on its third-place standing in 2022 – vs. New Orleans, vs. Indianapolis (in Germany) and at Pittsburgh – and even those games are no cakewalks.
Which team has the easiest schedule in 2023?
By contrast, the Atlanta Falcons are in prime position to rebound in 2023.
The team is scheduled to play just four games against teams that made the playoffs last season, and two of them are against a Bucs squad that lost Tom Brady this offseason. Atlanta will play each of its NFC South foes twice, the full NFC North and the full AFC South. Its other three matchups are against the Jets, Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals.
By Sharp’s measurement, a different NFC South team has the easiest 2023 schedule.
The New Orleans Saints have the same benefit as the Falcons next season minus a handful of matchups and the fact that they are on the other side of Saints-Falcons matchups. Atlanta is projected to win fewer games than New Orleans next season, so that tilts the scales in New Orleans’ favor for strength of schedule.
NFL strength of schedule 2023
Here is the full ranking of 2023 strength of schedule based on opponents’ win percentage from 2022 and opponents’ projected win totals for 2023:
NFL strength of schedule based on opponents’ 2022 win percentage
1. Philadelphia Eagles: .566
2. Miami Dolphins: .554
T-3. New England Patriots: .549
T-3. Dallas Cowboys: .549Â
T-3. New York Giants: .549
6. New York Jets: .545
7. Buffalo Bills: .542
8. Washington Commanders: .535
9. Los Angeles Rams: .533
10. Las Vegas Raiders: .524
11. Arizona Cardinals: .519
T-12. Los Angeles Chargers: .517
T-12. Denver Broncos: .517
T-12. Seattle Seahawks: .517
15: San Francisco 49ers: .514
16. Kansas City Chiefs: .512
17. Cincinnati Bengals: .510
T-18. Chicago Bears: .497Â
T-18. Minnesota Vikings: .497
20. Detroit Lions: .495
21. Baltimore Ravens: .484
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: .483
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: .477
24. Green Bay Packers: .476
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: .470
26. Cleveland Browns: .460
27. Carolina Panthers: .453
28. Tennessee Titans: .448
29. Indianapolis Colts: .434
30. Houston Texans: .431
31. New Orleans Saints: .427
32. Atlanta Falcons: .417
NFL strength of schedule based on opponents’ 2023 projected wins
1. New England Patriots
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. New York Jets
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Washington Commanders
10. Denver Broncos
11. Arizona Cardinals
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. New York Giants
15. Dallas Cowboys
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Los Angeles Rams
19. Green Bay Packers
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
22. Detroit Lions
23. Seattle Seahawks
24. Tennessee Titans
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Houston Texans
27. Chicago Bears
28. San Francisco 49ers
29. Carolina Panthers
30. Indianapolis Colts
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. New Orleans Saints
