How much can Phillies' outfield improve in '25?

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Opening Day 2024 featured a sellout crowd at Citizens Bank Park, the usual pomp and ceremony and a Phillies lineup in which the entire starting outfield — Nick Castellanos in right, Brandon Marsh in left and Johan Rojas in center — occupied the bottom three spots in the batting order.

Manager Rob Thomson didn't intend that to be a harbinger of things to come.

Sorta turned out that way, though.

Phillies outfielders as a group — and there were 11 of them before all was said and done — combined for a minus 1.1 WAR, ranking 18th in baseball. They hit a total of 50 homers. Or, to put it another way, less than Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani each slugged by themselves.

Now, it's true that the team also won 95 games before being rudely dismissed by the Mets in the NLDS. Clearly, a lot of things went right. Which just made the relative lack of outfield production stand out like a blinking red light.

As a result, Opening Day 2025 at Washington on March 27, will showcase a new look.

After a predictable spate of rumors that the Phils would be hot and heavy in pursuit of free-agent outfielder Juan Soto, it soon became apparent that the opposite was true. They opted instead to add Max Kepler on a 1-year, $10 million deal. For the mathematically challenged, that's 14 years and $755 million less than the archrival Mets ended up paying for Soto.

Here's how it's supposed to work: Kepler takes over left field, where Marsh got most of the starts last year. Marsh moves to center, his primary position with the Angels before being traded to the Phillies in August 2022.

"We get a little bit more offensive with Kepler," manager Rob Thomson explained, sitting in his BayCare Ballpark office after an early exhibition game. "Last year was kind of a down year for him, but he was hurt a lot. And he's a really good athlete. He can really play left field.

"Rojas is one of the best centerfielders defensively in baseball. But you're not losing much with Marsh. So I think we stay about the same defensively but we're better offensively."

Sounds good. But the crux of this plan succeeding requires Kepler and Marsh, both left-handed hitters, to at least hold their own against left-handed pitching. Especially since Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott are also lefty hitters.

Kepler, 32, started 124 games for the Twins as recently as 2013. Last year, his season was cut short by a knee injury in September and he underwent surgery to repair a core injury in October. He's now said to be fully recovered. And while he's had notably better success against right-handers for his career (.778 OPS vs. .655), he actually posted reverse splits in limited plate appearances (.721 against LHPs vs. .672) in 2024.

He's also worked with hitting coach Kevin Long on having better balance, moving closer to the plate to improve his ability to handle pitches on the outside part of the plate and tilting his bat to have a more direct approach to the ball.

Marsh was technically the "regular" in left last year but started just 73 games there while Whit Merrifield, Austin Hays, Wes Wilson, David Dahl, Cristian Pache, Schwarber and Kody Clemens also got playing time there. Marsh started 35 games in center and three in right.

Thomson said repeatedly last year that Marsh would get an extended opportunity to show what he could do against LHPs, but the reality is that it never happened.

When the final stats were tallied and certified, he had put up a respectable .262/.792 with 15 home runs against RHPs in 386 plate appearances. Against lefties, in just 78 tries, he batted .192/.552 with one homer. Despite that, Thomson said he saw reasons for optimism late last season.

"In his words, he was 'taking the Kyle Schwarber approach.' Using the other field. Staying on the ball. Thinking low to left field," Thomson said. "It helps him with all off-speed pitches, really, whether it's a right-hander or left-hander but especially with left-handed pitching. If he stays with that, he has a chance to have some success."

That's why the news that Wilson will open the season on the injured list landed so loudly. It was widely believed he would be the right-handed alternative if either Kepler or Marsh struggled against lefties.

That role could be temporarily filled by Edmundo Sosa, who played outfield throughout camp. Buddy Kennedy has made it down to the final day in Clearwater as another right-handed bench option, but his outfield experience is limited.

"If I have to, I'd platoon," Thomson said. "But I'd obviously prefer not to because that means they can hit both sides and it keeps it a little more consistent."