Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson will take a seat at the podium in the media room Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park and field questions for the better part of an hour about the Phillies' 2024 collapse, their mostly pathetic NLDS performance against the Mets and how they can break out of the backward trend they've fallen into.
Don't expect a ton of specifics related to individual players' futures, that's not the style of Dombrowski or pretty much any modern executive, but neither man should be in mince-words mode after the way this season of World Series-or-bust aspirations crashed and burned.
The Phillies face plenty of questions and decisions this offseason. Among them:
How do they fix the offense?
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They ran back most of the same team from 2023 to 2024 and that is unlikely to happen again, given the record payroll and finite window to win with the current core of Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, Trea Turner and the rest.
Harper thinks his prime can last another decade, and most players in that clubhouse will say they don't believe the window has closed or is closing, but that's what athletes say. Father Time doesn't need to make his case, he strikes and that's that. This specific group — the one that includes Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos … all the guys not under decade-plus contracts — might have very well just watched its three best chances come and go.
The lineup has to be fixed. Left field and center field are a problem. Johan Rojas is gifted defensively but can probably only be in the lineup of a contender if the other eight spots are rock-solid. He is far down the list of who to blame for the NLDS performance but is the easiest and clearest place to start when thinking about offensive improvement in a mostly inflexible lineup.
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The Brandon Marsh platoon situation also requires addressing. Platoons can work — the Mets utilize one with Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez — but you're asking for trouble when running platoons at multiple positions. There were times this season the Phillies did so in three different spots. It requires so much to go right, for a handful of players to all live up to their billing. Often, it sounds better in theory than it works in practice.
If the Phillies keep Marsh as a platoon outfielder, his partner needs to be someone more productive than Austin Hays. Part of Hays' weak second half was about a kidney infection and hamstring strain, but the Phillies can't just hope or assume that he reverts into the best version of himself ahead of 2025. They need more outfield help regardless of whether or not he does.
Where do Bohm and Stott fall?
Alec Bohm started in the All-Star Game this season and did take a step forward, despite the wretched end to his year. He hit .280, he set a career-high with 44 doubles and a .779 OPS, he hit over .300 with runners in scoring position.
He also was benched in Game 2 of the NLDS because of a combination of poor at-bats and poor reactions to those poor at-bats. It would have sounded shocking all season to hear Bohm would be benched in Game 2 of the playoffs so it was hard not to read into what it meant for his future. The Phillies, as mentioned previously, are locked into their starters at seven positions, so reformatting the offense will require some creativity.
Bohm was asked after the Phillies' season ended whether he thought he was at a career crossroads.
"No. I know where I'll be next year," he said, implying it would be Philly.
Stott hit .200 this season in 160 at-bats ending in a fastball of 93 mph or harder. Last season, he hit .319 in an even larger sample. He struggled most of the year to catch up to velocity and the Phillies need to figure out quickly whether that's a solvable problem or might drastically lower his ceiling.
Does Hoffman return?
Jeff Hoffman carried a 1.65 ERA into the final weekend of the regular season, then allowed 10 runs in 2⅓ innings, taking two of the Phillies' three playoff losses.
He is a free agent and his regular-season track record from 2023 and 2024 should result in a nice payday. But can the Phillies be the team that pays him $12-13 million per year over a three-year deal after what they saw in the playoffs? It's so difficult to judge relievers because sometimes a handful of outings can outweigh the dozens that preceded them, based on the situation and time of year.
The Phillies have a lot else they need to accomplish this winter, and given the amount of money Hoffman's side is likely to seek, it's a tossup.
Defensive changes?
Turner has been one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball since signing with the Phillies, maybe the worst. In 2023, his 23 errors led the majors. In 2024, he committed 17 errors in 35 fewer games and had the same fielding percentage.
The errors aren't all of one type. Some are routine bobbles. Some are bad throws. Turner is a tremendous athlete who hasn't lost that part of his game, but shortstop does not look like his long-term position and if the Phillies are being honest with themselves in trying to put together the best possible roster for 2025, it might involve moving Turner off of shortstop.
It's a decision they won't want to make because he's completed only two years of an 11-year contract. Turner wasn't signed for $300 million to be a left fielder, center fielder or second baseman. But he's underwhelmed at shortstop, and a defensive switch might also help him stay healthier and more effective for six full months.
Behind the plate
J.T. Realmuto was regarded as the best catcher in baseball when the Phillies acquired him from Miami and then re-signed him to a five-year, $115.5 million deal that ends after 2025.
He is no longer the best catcher in baseball. He still possesses one of the top all-around skill sets for a backstop, but the bat is not what it once was.
From 2016-22, Realmuto hit .278 with an .802 OPS.
The last two seasons, he's hit .258 with a .757 OPS.
He went 0-for-11 in the playoffs to lower his postseason batting average to .216 and on-base percentage to .295.
The Phillies have no choice but to keep him fresher in 2025. He played 134, 139 and 135 games from 2021-23 and would have neared that number again this season if not for a meniscus injury.
A more capable backup to Realmuto is a necessity, someone who could start 50 games if need be without the production cratering. Rafael Marchan is 25 years old and has impressed in brief stints, including this summer when he hit .294 in Realmuto's stead.
Marchan, oft-injured throughout his minor-league career, should be ready to step into the role as Realmuto's backup. That is, unless the Phillies use him as a trade chip for something else and find a backup elsewhere.
There are plenty more questions the Phillies will face in the four months until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater and many will be asked next Tuesday of Dombrowski and Thomson. The end-of-year press conference is coming far earlier than they'd have hoped.
