Get ready for a Phillies-Mets NLDS.
The Mets made a dramatic ninth-inning comeback Thursday night in their do-or-die Game 3 of the wild-card round, beating the Brewers 4-2 on a three-run homer from Pete Alonso in what otherwise could have been his final at-bat with the team.
They've been on the road for nearly two weeks, played five games in the last four days and will have just 24 hours off before facing the Phillies in Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday at 4:08 p.m.
The first pitch of the NLDS will be thrown by Zack Wheeler. It seemed like the Mets would use lefty David Peterson, whose 2.41 ERA in his final 11 starts helped propel his team to the playoffs, but he was needed in relief for the ninth inning Thursday. It could end up being Tylor Megill, Luis Severino on short rest or a bullpen game for the Mets. Peterson is still possibly in play himself, though it's not as open-and-shut a case now. Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana started in the wild-card round.
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The Mets are a solid team — power, plate selection, the ability to string together hits and come back late in games. They've done it all week, all month and throughout the entire second half. It's a deep lineup with Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Alonso, Mark Vientos, Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker, Starling Marte, J.D. Martinez. They don't have the top-end pitching the Phillies possess, nor is their bullpen as deep or talented after Edwin Diaz, but they won't be a pushover.
The Mets were eight games under .500 when the Phillies faced them in London the second week of June. Owner Steve Cohen fielded questions that weekend about Carlos Mendoza's managerial ability, the trade deadline and whether a rebuild was necessary. They were 28-36 when they left London and went 61-37 the rest of the way.
One of the ways the Phils match up well with the Mets is with right-handed velocity. Other than Nimmo and Winker, every Mets threat hits from the right side, and the switch-hitting Lindor has been better against lefties. The Phillies can combat that with Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez, Orion Kerkering and lefty Matt Strahm.
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Wheeler this season held righties to the second-lowest OPS (.434) of any pitcher in the last 50 years, behind only prime Max Scherzer. Righties hit .133 vs. Strahm, .173 vs. Hoffman, .186 vs. Estevez and .209 vs. Kerkering.
Nola faced the Mets twice this season, pitching a four-hit shutout in May and allowing six runs without making it out of the fifth inning in September. He will start either Game 2 or Game 3 with Cristopher Sanchez pitching the other.
The roll the Mets are on right now is reminiscent of the 2022 Phillies — below .500 in June, a second-half surge littered with late comebacks, a multi-week road trip to end the regular season and begin the playoffs. They've spent the better part of the last month grinding out at-bats and responding when their opponent has scored.
They're a dangerous team, as is any you'll face this time of year. The Phillies won the season series, 7-6, dropping three of the final four. In retrospect, just splitting that late-September series at Citi Field would have made the Mets' playoff path decidedly more difficult and perhaps prevented it altogether.
Instead, the Phillies will face a division rival in the NLDS for the third straight postseason. The last two times, they were the underdog facing a 100-plus-win Braves team regarded as the best in baseball. This time, they're the hunted.
No juicier way to begin the month a fanbase has awaited for a year.
