A.J. Brown will miss the home opener against the Falcons Monday night due to a hamstring injury but recent trade acquisition Jahan Dotson has been studying the playbook and is ready to get more reps.
The Eagles hunt for a 2-0 start tonight in their home opener against the Atlanta Falcons. The Birds got some late-breaking injury news regarding WR1 A.J. Brown, which could change their gameplan significantly. Either way, let’s take a look at these numbers and see if we can’t make it a profitable evening.
All odds provided by Fanatics Sportsbook.
Eagles vs. Falcons, 8:15pm
Point spread/ML – Falcons +5.5/+200 Eagles -5.5/-250
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Total Points (O/U) – 45.5 points
Analysis: Brown’s hamstring will almost certainly put a dent in the Eagles’ passing game. The Falcons managed just ten points against the Steelers at home in Week 1. The Eagles’ defense isn’t a finished product yet; they were gashed in the running game, and the Packers only punted twice. The Eagles just have more talent across the board, but I don’t think they will dominate.
Picks: Eagles ML; Under 45.5 points
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Passing Props (O/U)
Kirk Cousins – 225.5 passing yards; 33.5 attempts; 21.5 completions; 1.5 passing TD (+145/-190)
Jalen Hurts – 230.5 passing yards; 30.5 attempts; 20.5 completions; 1.5 passing TD (+125/-185)
Analysis: Cousins threw for just 16/26 for 155 yards in Week 1. Those numbers will tick up, but he doesn’t have a wealth of talent to throw to. I feel like the loss of Brown will lead the Eagles to keep the ball on the ground more.
Picks: Cousins UNDER 225.5 yards; Hurts UNDER 230.5 yards
Rushing Props (O/U)
- Bijan Robinson – 85.5 yards
- Saquon Barkley – 80.5 yards
- Jalen Hurts – 35.5 yards
- Tyler Allgeier – 20.5 yards
- Kenny Gainwell – 10.5 yards
Analysis: As mentioned, the Eagles will aim to keep the ball on the ground, which means a heavier workload for Barkley, Hurts and Gainwell. Barkley had 24 carries vs GB, he could have even more. Steelers QB Justin Fields ran for 14/57 against Atlanta’s D, so look for Hurts to bust a couple tonight. The Eagles run defense didn’t fare well in Week 1, yielding 7.8 yards/carry.
Picks: Robinson OVER 85.5 yards, Barkley OVER 80.5 yards, Hurts OVER 35.5 yards
Receiving props (O/U)
- DeVonta Smith – 70.5 yards; 5.5 receptions
- Drake London – 55.5 yards; 5.5 receptions
- Dallas Goedert – 45.5 yards; 4.5 receptions
- Kyle Pitts – 40.5 yards; 3.5 receptions
- Darnell Mooney – 35.5 yards; 3.5 receptions
- Bojan Robinson – 30.5 yards; 4.5 receptions
- Jahan Dotson – 25.5 yards; 2.5 receptions
- Saquon Barkley – 20.5 yards
Analysis: With Brown out of the mix, Smith should see much more targets tonight, as will Jahan Dotson and TE Dallas Goedert. Robinson was 5/43 on five targets in Week 1, as Cousins threw 12 of his 26 passes to RBs. That doesn’t leave much love for the rest of his skill position players.
Picks: Smith OVER 70.5 yards, OVER 5.5 receptions; Goedert OVER 45.5 yards; Dotson OVER 25.5 yards, OVER 2.5 receptions
Anytime Touchdowns
Barkley – -180
Robinson – -110
Hurts – +105
Smith - +125
Goedert +190
London - +190
Pitts - +240
Dotson - +270
Allgeier - +290
Analysis: Barkley is a near-lock; I would sprinkle some on 2 scores (+310) for tonight. Same with Robinson, for even more value (+475). Dotson and Goedert could see some red zone targets in this one as well.
Picks: Barkley, Robinson, Goedert
