Temperatures are cooling in Japan, but interest in visiting shows no signs of abating, as autumn arrivals continue to outpace pre-pandemic levels.

The country welcomed 2.93 million foreign visitors in August, followed by another 2.87 million visitors in September — well above the 2.52 million and 2.27 million who arrived during those same months in 2019, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.

Historically, Japan sees a lull of tourists in August and September, followed by a bump in visitors in October from travelers in search of fall foliage or Tokyo's storied Halloween celebrations.

But this year, that drop is expected to be muted, as the country is experiencing a long-awaited rise in arrivals from Chinese travelers, a trend which began in June. Before the pandemic, China was Japan's largest tourism source market, representing 30% of all arrivals, according to Japanese authorities.

Chinese visitors to Japan doubled last month, from 325,645 in September 2023 to 652,300 in September 2024, according to Japan's tourism statistics.

From January to September this year, more than 5.2 million visitors from China visited Japan, a 228% increase from 2023, according to preliminary statistics. But that leaves plenty of space to grow to reach the 9.6 million that arrived in 2019.

Growth from the west

As Chinese arrivals ramp up, visitors to Japan from other countries have fully recovered and even exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Though two-thirds of visitors are from East Asia — namely, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong —greater growth in the first half of this year came from travelers from North America and other parts of Asia-Pacific, according to a report by Mastercard Economics Institute released in September.

The number of travelers from the United States rose 153% in the first half of 2024 from the same period in 2019.

Visitors from Canada (148%), Australia (141%), Singapore (140%) and New Zealand (138%) also surpassed pre-pandemic levels, according to the report, as did arrivals from India and Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Those from North America and Europe, who travel for longer distances, tend to stay longer, the report stated. Some 40% of those from Europe stay between two and three weeks, it said.

By contrast, 75% of South Korean visitors — currently Japan's top tourism source market — stay less than a week.

As a result, travelers from North America and Europe spend more on accommodations and food, while Asian tourists spend more on shopping, the report stated.

However, favorable exchange rates caused by the weak yen have led to many spending more on retail purchases, a trend most noticeable among Singaporean, American and European visitors, according to Mastercard's report.

Concentration of tourists

Japan expects that some 35 million tourists will arrive by the end of 2024 — a 10% increase from 2019 levels.

But officials hope to welcome far more, nearly doubling pre-pandemic arrivals to reach 60 million visitors by 2030.

However, the country is already battling issues related to overtourism, which has resulted in jam-packed temples, crowded "zen" gardens and a shortage of rice in the country.

According to Mastercard's report, overcrowding is most pronounced in four places: Kyoto, Tokyo, Osaka and Okinawa.  

"In April 2024, Kyoto had the highest proportion of foreign guests, with 68% compared to Tokyo's 36%," the report states. "Outside these main cities, the foreign guest ratio typically falls below 10%. This marks a significant increase from 2019, when Kyoto and Tokyo had average foreign guest ratios of 38% and 17%, respectively."

Notably, Japan features prominently on many trend lists for 2025, from Expedia's "Unpack '25: The Trends in Travel" to Lonely Planet's 2025 "Best in Travel."

Tokyo and Osaka are among 10 global cities named to Airbnb's top trending winter destinations list, according to a report released by the company on Oct. 16.

Hilton's 2025 "Trends Report" also shows considerable interest in Japan, stating that out of the top eight luxury hotels where Hilton Honors members redeemed the most points in the first half of 2024, three are in Japan — Conrad Tokyo, Conrad Osaka and Roku Kyoto.