Dow adds 200 points for first close above 43,000; S&P 500 hits another all-time high: Live updates

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to fresh records Monday as investors awaited the next batch of key corporate earnings.

The broad market index climbed 0.77% to 5,859.85, while the 30-stock Dow advanced 201.36 points to 43,065.22. Both averages hit all-time highs and closed at records, with the Dow ending the session above the 43,000 mark for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.87%, closing at 18,502.69.

McDonald's, UnitedHealth Group and Apple led the Dow higher. Technology continued its upward run and was the best-performing sector in the S&P.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson report their latest results on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley and United Airlines are set to release results Wednesday. Walgreens Boots Alliance, Netflix and Procter & Gamble are also scheduled to post earnings this week.

Those reports will come after JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo kicked off the third-quarter earnings season on a high note. The early signs of a recovery in banking profits helped push the broader market to all-time highs at the end of last week. The S&P 500 closed above 5,800 for the first time on Friday, while the blue-chip Dow also reached an all-time high.

So far, 30 S&P 500 companies have posted results, beating the earnings consensus by about 5% on average, according to Bank of America. That is better than the 3% beat this time last quarter. Still, Bernstein thinks this quarter's year-over-year earnings per share growth rate will come in "much lower" than last quarter's.

Despite the market climbing to new all-time highs, investors remain anxious against a backdrop of a closely contested presidential election in three weeks, suddenly rising Treasury yields, uncertainty about the pace of Federal Reserve policy easing and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

"All-time-highs sentiment is maybe a little stretched, so it wouldn't be surprising — especially in the last three or four weeks before an election — to see some volatility return," said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield. "Over a three- or six-month-plus time horizon we're still pretty bullish just on the idea of lower rates for the right reason, soft landing in the economy and earnings growth."

The S&P 500 has gained almost 23% this year, excluding reinvested dividends. The bull market recently turned two years old, and the benchmark has rallied about 63% in total since hitting a closing low in October 2022. Treasury yields have risen lately, too, with the benchmark 10-year note yield, used to calculate everything from mortgages to auto loans, topping 4.1% last week.

The bond market was closed on Monday for Columbus Day.

S&P 500 soars to new record close

The S&P 500 notched another record close Monday afternoon.

The broad market index rose 0.77% and finished at 5,859.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.47%, or 201.36 points, settling at 43,065.22. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.87% and closed at 18,502.69.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Oppenheimer believes S&P 500 could continue its record-breaking rally

The third-quarter earnings season is underway, and Oppenheimer believes earnings are "off to a pretty good start" so far. The firms believes the market could continue to harness this positive momentum and climb higher, despite heightened uncertainty heading into the U.S. presidential elections.

"History in our experience has shown that monetary policy, economic conditions, corporate and revenue and earnings growth generally carry more weight in terms of the direction markets might take in the period that follows most national elections rather than the political arguments in the heat of electioneering before the election," the firm wrote in a Monday note.

Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus added: "Notwithstanding election year nervousness on policies intimated by either Presidential candidate as well as heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the S&P 500's 45th record closing price of this year suggests to us a market bolstered by economic resilience and healthy earnings growth that may have room to move higher."

— Lisa Kailai Han

September retail sales could strengthen the 'no landing' narrative, Bank of America Securities says

The September retail sales report could strengthen the "no landing" narrative, which would be a bullish development for stocks, according to Bank of America Securities.

Calls for a "no landing" scenario, in which the economy continues to expand even with inflation remaining elevated, have grown after the latest jobs report and core inflation data in the consumer price index came in hotter than expected.

Ohsung Kwon, the firm's equity and quant strategist, said the retail sales report that is set to release Thursday will only add to investor confidence in that outcome, as he expects the data will come in hotter than anticipated.

"The 'no landing' narrative could continue to strengthen if we get blowout retail sales this week," Kwon wrote in a Monday note. "'No landing' is bullish for stocks, in our view, as long as inflation doesn't flare up."

"In a contained inflation environment, the relationship between rates and stocks should be positive," he added.

— Sarah Min

Why inflation risks are rising, according to Deutsche Bank

It is still too soon to dismiss rising inflation risks, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen.

In a Monday note, Allen shared five reasons why he believes inflation risks are still mounting:

1. Major central banks have adopted greater-than-expected levels of near-term monetary easing.
2. Commodity prices have increased on the back of China's stimulus announcements and Middle East tensions.
3. U.S. data is strong and shows the economy will likely avoid a sharper downturn.
4. September's CPI report came in stronger than expected.
5. Money supply growth is accelerating.

— Lisa Kailai Han

UBS maintains positive outlook on U.S. equities

UBS believes third-quarter earnings growth will be strong, but overall will not match the growth seen in the second quarter of the year.

"We expect headline S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth to be 5-7% for the September quarter, compared with 11% in the second quarter due to lower oil and gasoline prices," the bank wrote in a Monday note. "But our 2024 full-year earnings growth forecast of 11% remains unchanged, and we believe the third-quarter results should confirm that large-cap corporate profit growth is solid against a resilient macro backdrop."

In the same note, the bank reiterated its June 2025 price target of 6,200 for the S&P 500. This is approximately 6.6% higher than where the benchmark closed on Friday at its 45th all-time closing high of the year.

"So, we maintain our positive outlook for US equities, supported by healthy economic and profit growth, the Fed's easing cycle, and AI's growth story. While valuations are high, we think they are reasonable against the favorable backdrop," UBS added.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Piper Sandler says it's no big deal the S&P 500 is 8% overvalued

The S&P 500 is currently trading 8% above its fair value, according to Piper Sandler, but the firm says that is "no reason to get bearish."

"We've found that market multiples boil down to 3 variables: 1) interest rates; 2) credit spreads; and 3) index composition," wrote chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz. "Stocks can remain at rich valuations as long as a 'fear' catalyst doesn't arise from the usual suspects: interest rates, employment or inflation."

Kantrowitz added that investors can use earnings momentum as a top stock-selection tool. "Stocks with stronger EPS momentum are more likely to sustain or increase their valuation," he added.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Outlook should be more bullish for retail stocks going forward, Barclays says

Barclays believes retail stocks should have a better time going forward. However, an upside still is not guaranteed if the housing market does not improve.

"The current setup should be bullish for retail, with rate cuts, consumer uncertainty hopefully lifting post election, and discretionary wallet share stabilizing," the firm wrote in a Monday note to clients. "But reality is more complex, as mortgage rates are still elevated while consumer spending on 'essentials' is still constraining a bigger discretionary inflection."

— Lisa Kailai Han

Bernstein forecasts positive earnings growth for 5 out of 11 sectors

Bernstein estimates third-quarter S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.6% year over year, "much lower" than last quarter's 11%.

"Earnings growth forecasts are positive for 5 of 11 sectors led by technology, communications and healthcare while energy and materials are expected to be the largest drags," the firm added.

Analyst Ann Larson highlighted the importance of technology stocks to the earnings growth.

"Without Nvidia, the S&P 500's Q3 earnings growth rate estimate would be +2.0%, and excluding all the Mag 7 stocks, the growth rate would be +0.5%. According to analysts' current forecasts, the Magnificent 7 effect will start to moderate next quarter and through the first half of 2025," she wrote.

Larson added that the S&P 500's third-quarter earnings growth rate would be 5.7% excluding the energy sector and 4.5% excluding financials.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Economy entering supportive phase for stocks, says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer believes the U.S. economy is normalizing, providing a supportive backdrop for the stock market.

"We are entering a more benign part of the cycle with a continuation of economic growth alongside lower policy rates — a combination that has historically been positive for equities," Oppenheimer wrote in a Monday note.

Oppenheimer noted that rising government debt to GDP ratios for developed markets could constrain index returns.

— Hakyung Kim

Bull market isn't extended, Oppenheimer says

The ongoing bull market is "not extended in terms of either percent gain or duration," according to Oppenheimer.

Analyst Michael Welch noted that the current bull market has notched an advance of about 62.6% over 500 days. For comparison, the median bull market gain was close to 80% over 661 days, according to Oppenheimer data going back to 1957.

Of the last 15 bull markets, he said the current one is only the 12th strongest by both gain size and duration of time.

— Alex Harring

Higher volatility isn't a 'bad omen' for stocks, says GlobalData TS Lombard

Higher volatility does not necessarily mean doom and gloom for stocks, according to GlobalData TS Lombard.

"The recent jump in volatility is not necessarily a bad omen for risk assets," the firm's global research team wrote in an October note. "Rather, it shows investors' growing propensity to hedge against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical and macro uncertainty."

"The combination of an improving central bank liquidity impulse, better earnings breadth and resilient profit margins bodes well for global equities near term," the firm added.

— Brian Evans

Nvidia heads for record close

Nvidia shares rose more than 2%, putting them on track for a record close.

The chipmaker last traded around $137 per share. The stock is still below its intraday all-time high of $140.76, which was set in June 20.

Year to date, shares are up 178%.

— Fred Imbert

Walmart's rally 'still has legs,' Oppenheimer says, as it reiterates stock as a top pick

Walmart's stock has logged a 52% gain year to date, solidly outpacing the S&P 500's 22%, and trading at a premium to its peers. Oppenheimer said the retailer remains a top pick.

Analyst Rupesh Parikh explained that the stock's "bull run still has legs" because Walmart will see strong sales and profit growth, is making market share gains and has runway to scale new businesses.

"We visit WMT stores throughout the country and continue to see very strong execution," Parikh wrote. "This includes strong in-stock positions, well-staffed stores, and limited clearance inventory. In addition, on the e-commerce front, we continue to see an enhanced experience with Walmart+."

Walmart's gain this year stacks up against Costco's 36% jump and Target's 9% rise. Discounters Dollar General and Dollar Tree have posted declines of 39% and 51%, respectively.

— Christina Cheddar Berk

51 stocks trade at new 52-week highs

Fifty-one stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs on Monday. The benchmark was last up around 0.6%.

Names that hit this milestone included:

• Live Nation Entertainment trading at levels not seen since April 2022
• T-Mobile US trading at all-time highs back to the MetroPCS initial public offering in April 2007
• Lowe's trading at all-time-high levels back to its IPO in October 1961; LOW has been traded on the New York Stock Exchange since December 1979
• BlackRock trading at all-time-high levels back to its IPO in 1999
• United Airlines trading at levels not seen since March 2021
• Motorola Solutions trading at all-time highs back to when it began trading as a separate entity post the Motorola Mobility split
• ServiceNow trading at all-time-high levels back to its IPO in June 2012
• Palantir Technologies trading at levels not seen since February 2021
• McDonald's trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in 1965
• O'Reilly Auto trading at all-time-high levels back to its IPO in April 1993
• Royal Caribbean trading at all-time-high levels back to its IPO in April 1993
• Ralph Lauren trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in June 1997

— Lisa Kailai Han, Christopher Hayes

Tech-Software ETF reaches new record high

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF rose 0.6% Monday, hitting a new intraday all-time high back to its inception in 2001.

This marked the exchange-traded fund's fifth straight positive day.

Some stocks in the ETF that reached fresh highs were Autodesk, which rose 0.8% to a level not seen since January 2022. MicroStrategy gained more than 3% to its highest point since March 2000.

— Hakyung Kim, Gina Francolla

OPEC cuts oil demand forecast again, crude prices fall nearly 2%

OPEC has slashed its global 2024 demand forecast for the third time in a row, putting pressure on the crude futures market in morning trading.

U.S. crude oil was down $1.43, or 1.89%, to $74.13 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent pulled back $1.49, or 1.89%, to $77.55 per barrel.

OPEC now sees demand growing by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, down from 2 million bpd in its previous forecast, according to a report released Monday. The group expects demand to grow by 1.6 million bpd in 2025, compared to 1.7 million bpd previously.

Prior to the escalation in the Middle East, worries about softening demand in China and an expected crude surplus next year had weighed on the market.

Traders are still monitoring tensions between Israel and Iran after Tehran's ballistic missile strike this month. U.S. officials told NBC News that Israel has narrowed its targets to Iran's military and energy infrastructure.

— Spencer Kimball

GE Aerospace stock is 'winning either way' heading into earnings, says Bernstein

Even as GE Aerospace is contending with equipment shortages tied to production of its LEAP engines heading into third-quarter results, Bernstein thinks the stock is still "winning either way" and is primed for outperformance.

The firm reiterated its outperformance on the aviation stock and raised its price target to $225 per share from $210 in a Sunday note. Bernstein's forecast implies more than 17% upside from Friday's $191.16 close.

"Our thesis on GE has been that it is well-positioned for the short, medium, and long-term. This is because it has a huge installed base, which drives a powerful, profitable aftermarket," analyst Douglas Harned said. "This attractive aftermarket is driving current margins higher and should extend for the next few years, at which point it should also have a huge installed base with the LEAP engine."

— Brian Evans

Jefferies says buy this under-the-radar injectable drug delivery maker

It is time to buy shares of this injectable drug delivery maker with more than 30% upside, according to Jefferies.

"As the pharma business grows, we expect the valuation to continue to move towards that of healthcare packaging competitors," as the company roles out new products, wrote analyst Daniel Rizzo.

Shares have already surged more than 30% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500.

Read the full story here.

— Samantha Subin

S&P 500 opens higher following Friday's record close

The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% Monday morning to a new record. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 94 points, or 0.2%.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Truist downgrades Amgen ahead of obesity drug trial results

Biotech company Amgen is trying to stake its claim to the obesity drug boom, but there may not be much upside left for its stock, according to Truist.

Analyst Srikripa Devarakonda downgraded Amgen to hold from buy, saying in a note to clients that there is limited upside for the stock even if the phase two trial results for the MariTide obesity drug are strong.

"While we assign ~$5B in peak adjusted sales to obesity, we believe that current levels already reflect significant value to the program. We see $20-$40/sh upside on what we believe would be stellar data (efficacy greater than Zepbound but parity safety) and $40-$50/sh downside on weak data (efficacy and safety worse than Zepbound)," the note said.

Devarakonda bumped the price target on Amgen to $333 per share from $320. The new target is less than 2% above where the stock closed Friday.

— Jesse Pound

Flutter Entertainment, Boeing among the stocks making moves premarket

Here are some stocks making big moves in premarket trading:

• Crypto stocks — Stocks linked to cryptocurrencies rose as bitcoin soared above $64,000 to start the week. Extending gains from the previous session, MicroStrategy and Mara Holdings — formerly Marathon Digital — each gained more than 5%, while Coinbase advanced more than 3%.
• Flutter Entertainment — The FanDuel parent company popped 4% after Wells Fargo upgraded shares to overweight, saying investors should consider buying the stock following the recent sell-off.
• Boeing — Shares slumped 2.3% after the plane manufacturer announced Friday afternoon that it plans to cut about 10% of its workforce, or about 17,000 people. Boeing also postponed the delivery of its still-uncertified 777X wide-body plane and forecast a wider-than-expected loss for the third quarter. The company is facing mounting losses amid an ongoing machinist strike.

Read here for the full list.

Sean Conlon

Bond market, Fed closed for Columbus Day

Monday is Columbus Day in the U.S., which affects some of the country's financial and economic institutions.

Here's what to know about Monday:

• The stock market is open.
• The bond market is closed.
• The Federal Reserve is closed.
• There are no key economic releases on the docket because of the federal holiday.

— Alex Harring

Mizuho ups price target on Broadcom, cites OpenAI partnership

A likely chipmaking contract with OpenAI could boost shares of Broadcom more than 20% in the coming months, according to Mizuho.

Analyst Vijay Rakesh upped his price target to $220 from $190 a share, reflecting 21% upside from Friday's close. The stock is up more than 62% this year.

"New hardware platforms with OpenAI ChatGPT5+ - potentially a mammoth $16B/yr custom AI [application-specific integrated circuits] opportunity 2H25-2026E," he wrote.

— Samantha Subin

Goldman Sachs upgraded Ibotta, says shares could surge 30%

Goldman Sachs says it is time to buy shares of Ibotta.

"For IBTA, we see an attractive risk/reward as we view current valuation levels as under-appreciating IBTA's forward growth opportunity around scaling 3P redemptions partnerships (Walmart, Instacart, etc.)," wrote Eric Sheridan, upgrading shares to a buy rating.

The analyst expects the digital marketing company backed by Walmart to benefit from "increasing digital penetration" and growing market share opportunities within U.S. grocery and advertising segments.

Sheridan also forecasts that revenue can grow 19% at a compounded annual growth rate through 2028, driven predominantly by its third-party partnership with Walmart, in addition to new partnerships with companies such as Instacart.

The firm maintained its $87 price target, reflecting 30% upside from Friday's close. Shares went public on the New York Stock Exchange in April.

— Samantha Subin

Bull market now 2 years old

It has been two years since the current bull market began, and the gains have been impressive. Since hitting a closing low in October 2022, the S&P 500 has rallied 62.6%. On Friday, the broad market index also closed above 5,800 for the first time.

— Fred Imbert

Goldman Sachs downgrades AppLovin, cites balanced risk/reward

Goldman Sachs is moving to the sidelines on shares of AppLovin on the heels of a blowout 2024 run.

The mobile technology company slumped 4% after analyst Eric Sheridan downgraded shares to neutral, noting the stock's 269% year-to-date gain.

"Against a stock price of $143 (+113% vs the SPX +11% since the last earnings report), we now see a more balanced risk/reward skew to the shares from current levels," he wrote.

Despite the rating change, Sheridan expects the company's business to continue to yield "above average" advertising and marketing growth and a "strong margin profile" within mobile gaming.

Given the 2024 surge, he upped the firm's price target to $150 from $103 a share. The stock closed at $147 on Friday.

— Samantha Subin

Morgan Stanley downgrades Caterpillar, says shares could fall nearly 20%

It is time for investors to take a step back from shares of Caterpillar, according to Morgan Stanley.

Shares slumped more than 2% in the premarket after analyst Angel Castillo downgraded shares to underweight and lowered the firm's price target, citing troubles within the industrial giant's construction industries (CI) business.

"We see mounting risks of de-stocking in CI and limited offsets from mega projects, manufacturing costs or [energy and transportation]," he said. "Combined with YTD performance and a mid-cycle multiple on peak earnings, we see rising earnings revision risk."

Castillo trimmed the firm's price target to $332 from $349 a share, reflecting more than 17% downside from Friday's close. Shares are up 36% since the start of 2024.

— Samantha Subin

China's CSI 300 ends higher after choppy trading as investors digest stimulus plan

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday as investors assessed China's weekend press briefing and awaited a slew of economic data this week from the region.

Mainland China's CSI 300 added 1.9% to close at 3,691.3, following a choppy trading session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 0.9% as of its final hour of trade.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.47% to end at 8,252.8. Taiwan markets edged 0.32% higher to end at 22,975.29.

South Korea's blue-chip index Kospi gained over 1% to finish at 2,623.29, while the small-cap Kosdaq index ended nearly flat at 770.26.

— Anniek Bao

European markets flat at the open

European stocks were mixed as markets opened on Monday, with regional markets lacking direction after a choppy week last week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was little changed as markets opened, last down 0.02% at 8:15 a.m. London time.

Amid range-bound trade, travel and leisure stocks were the outlier, down 1.7%.

— Sophie Kiderlin

China hints at increasing the deficit

China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an said in a highly anticipated press briefing Saturday that the central government has room to increase debt and the deficit, but noted such policies are still under discussion.

In the days leading up to the briefing, many investors and analysts had hoped that China was gearing up to unveil a major new stimulus package.

Hedge funds that recently flocked into Chinese stocks on stimulus hopes just did a 180 last week. Professional traders posted the largest single-day net selling of Chinese securities, both onshore and offshore, on Tuesday, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data.

— Yun Li, Evelyn Cheng