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European markets head for mixed open as Trump win settles in; Fed, BoE decisions in focus

Commuters cycles past the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decision is scheduled for release on Sept. 19. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

This is CNBC's live blog covering European markets.

European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 14 points higher at 8,159, Germany's DAX up 25 points at 19,063, France's CAC down 12 points at 7,341 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 23 points at 33,703, according to data from IG.

Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight.

Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders anticipate a 96.1% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, following a half-percentage-point reduction in September.

In the U.K., the Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates on Thursday, which would be the second such trim this year.

German markets will be watched carefully Thursday after Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his Finance Minister Christian Lindner Wednesday night, effectively bringing an end to the governing coalition. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15. If he loses the vote, snap elections will likely be held in March next year.

Trump win and threat of more tariffs raises expectations for more China stimulus

BEIJING, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 04: Buildings and vehicles are seen in the central business district during the rush hour on September 4, 2020 in Beijing, China.
Zhang Qiao | Visual China Group | Getty Images
BEIJING, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 04: Buildings and vehicles are seen in the central business district during the rush hour on September 4, 2020 in Beijing, China.

Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win has raised the bar for China's fiscal stimulus plans, expected Friday.

On the campaign trial, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods sold to the U.S. Increased duties of at least 10% under Trump's first term as president did not dent America's position as China's largest trading partner.

But new tariffs — potentially on a larger scale — would come at a pivotal time for China. The country is relying more on exports for growth as it battles with a real estate slump and tepid consumer spending.

Read more on the story here

— Evelyn Cheng

Adyen posts 21% jump in third-quarter sales

Adyen reported a big miss on first-half sales Thursday. The news drove a $20 billion rout in the company's market capitalization .
Pavlo Gonchar | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Adyen reported a big miss on first-half sales Thursday. The news drove a $20 billion rout in the company's market capitalization .

Adyen reported a jump in sales in the third quarter as the Dutch payments firm gained wallet share and added new customers, diversifying its merchant mix.

The company, whose technology allows businesses to accept payments online and in-store, reported third-quarter net revenue of 498.3 million ($535.5 million), up 21% year-over-year on a constant currency basis.

It comes after Adyen shares tanked nearly 40% in a single day last August on the back of worse-than-expected sales and declining profits.

Read the full earnings story here.

- Ryan Browne

Chances of a 10% universal tariff under Trump next year are 'low,' says Michael Feroli

President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy may not be set in stone yet, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. 

"We think odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons," the analyst wrote in a Wednesday note. "China, on the other hand, is likely to face significantly higher effective tariffs."

Throughout his campaign, the former president has vowed to implement across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports entering the U.S. Meanwhile, for Chinese goods, he's proposed a levy of between 60% to 100%.

— Sean Conlon

Here is how the stock market performs historically after an election

Here is how stocks can perform into year-end, now that markets have gotten past the election, according to Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner.

Historically speaking, stocks rally into year-end from Election Day. However, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 perform even better during presidential election years, while the Nasdaq Composite does worse.

Take a look at their historical performance between Nov. 5th through Dec. 31st.

  • Historically, the S&P 500 rises 2.68% on average from Nov. 5th to Dec. 31st, in data going back to 1928. However, in election years, the broader index rallies 3.38% over the same time period.
  • Typically, the Nasdaq gains an average 5.53% between Election Day and year's end, in data going back to 1985. In election years, however, the benchmark gains just 0.79% over the same period.
  • In its history, the Russell 2000 gains 5.70%, on average, going back to 1979. In election years, the small-cap index surges 7.94% from Nov. 5th to December 31st.

— Sarah Min

CNBC Pro: Beyond ASML: Goldman reveals its refreshed list of top European stocks - giving one 50% upside

Dutch behemoth ASML has been a favorite among investors this year, but Goldman Sachs has adopted a cautious stance on the stock and removed it from its conviction list of top stocks.

Besides ASML, Goldman also removed several stocks from its Europe conviction list for November, and refreshed it by adding others

The stocks are featured in the investment bank's "Conviction List - Directors' Cut," which it says offers a "curated and active" list of buy-rated stocks.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Amala Balakrishner

Chinese EV stocks extend losses after Trump victory

Chinese electric vehicle stocks extended their losses after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections.

Geely Automotive and BYD Co were among the top losers on Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, shedding 2.61% and 3.32%, respectively, Eikon data showed.

Other EV makers also fell, with Nio losing 2.86% and Xpeng down 1.42%. Xiaomi, which recently entered the EV market, was down 1.81%.

— Lim Hui Jie

European markets: Here are the opening calls

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Thursday.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 14 points higher at 8,159, Germany's DAX up 25 points at 19,063, France's CAC down 12 points at 7,341 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 23 points at 33,703, according to data from IG.

Earnings are set to come from Zurich Insurance, Daimler Truck, Lanxess, Veolia, Legrand, Novonesis, National Grid, Sainsbury's, ITV, BT, Telefonica, ArcelorMittal, Munich Re, Heidelberg materials, Rheinmetall, Tate & Lyle, EDP, Euronext and AF-KLM.

German trade balance data will be released and the Bank of England announces its latest monetary policy decision.

— Holly Ellyatt

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