The Queen’s Gambit on Netflix and Disney’s Mickey Mouse
It's a showdown in the streaming space.
CNBC's "Trading Nation" asked its traders Monday whether they're betting on Disney or Netflix shares here.
"My kids might give you a different answer, but I would argue that Netflix has the much more convincing chart," said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. "That's based simply because it's shown better relative strength."
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Netflix has begun to break out over the past month, rallying 8% compared with a 1% gain for the S&P 500. It has also beaten Disney, which is down 7% over the same stretch.
"The strength we saw in September broke through resistance levels and a range the stock had been in for the prior year," said Wald. "It occurred with the rest of the market pulling back, so I think that's very telling it was able to show such exceptional strength in a difficult market tape, and I think now it is positioned to reap the rewards as the rest of the market improves with it."
Wald does not have a view into Netflix earnings, out Tuesday afternoon, but highlights $600 as possible support in the case of weakness. Netflix traded just below $638 on Monday.
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"We do expect pullbacks to be bought ahead of higher highs looking out over the coming months," he said.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, also sides with Netflix over Disney.
"It is outperforming, it has asserted itself as a market leader, whereas Disney on the other hand has really been range-bound for several months," Stockton said during the same interview. "It just can't get out of that range, which is characterized by downside momentum from an intermediate-term perspective."
Stockton says a move for Disney above its 200-day moving average at around $180 would make the stock more attractive. Disney closed Monday at $171.
She does warn that Netflix could undergo some weakness after earnings given it is showing "some signs of short-term exhaustion." Like Wald, Stockton sees a pullback as an opportunity to buy the dip.
Netflix has fallen in the session after six out of the past seven quarterly reports. The company is expected to report 3.84 million in paid net additions in the third quarter, slightly above its own guidance at 3.5 million.
