Why Pennsylvania Senate race between Casey, McCormick hasn't been called

Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick is still too early to call, according to the Associated Press, and too close to call, according to NBC News.

As of midday Thursday morning, McCormick had less than a 32,000-vote lead, which has been dwindling as outstanding votes continue to be counted, according to NBC News data and the AP. The roughly half-percentage-point margin between the candidates also qualifies the race for an automatic recount.

Both McCormick and Casey have more than 3 million votes cast for them and each expressed optimism that once all votes are counted they would win.

"In the coming days the election results will be finalized," McCormick told his supporters in Pittsburgh Tuesday night. "And when they are we will look forward to a new agenda, a new America."

Casey's campaign noted the shrinking margins in a new statement Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024:

"The count in Pennsylvania is still continuing," Casey for Senate spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said. "Yesterday, the vote margin shrunk by 50,000 votes and this race is now within half a point, the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania. With tens of thousands more votes to be counted, we are committed to ensuring every Pennsylvanian's vote is heard and confident that at the end of that process, Senator Casey will be re-elected."

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McCormick had overtaken Casey with about 80% of the estimated votes counted just before midnight on Tuesday. Casey initially had a lead over McCormick when just about 40% of the estimated votes had been counted, propelled in part by mailed ballots that have historically favored Democrats. McCormick was doing better in votes cast on Election Day.

As of midday Thursday, 97% of the vote had been counted and an estimated 181,000 ballots remained to be counted, NBC News reported. That remaining vote number can still change.

Besides Casey and McCormick, three independent candidates were on the ballot, but they all trailed significantly while combing for more than 2.5% of the vote tally.

The race still hasn't been called since Casey still has a narrow path to victory.

About the Casey/McCormick race

Casey hails from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected office as auditor general and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point grad, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.

McCormick has accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO from Connecticut.

Pennsylvania Democrats have found success against GOP rivals in the recent Senate and governor's races.

John Fetterman beat Oz in 2022 by 5 points, and Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano handily that year as well, becoming the first governor to be elected to succeed a member of his party since 1966.