Why Pa. Senate race between Casey, McCormick hasn't been called by NBC News

Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick was still too close to call, according to NBC News. However, the Associated Press called the race for McCormick.

As of Friday morning, McCormick had nearly a 35,000-vote lead, which has been dwindling as outstanding votes continue to be counted, according to NBC News data and the AP. The roughly half-percentage-point margin between the candidates also would qualify the race for an automatic recount.

The AP called the race for McCormick on Thursday evening, however, NBC News still hadn't projected a winner as of Friday morning pending a review of provisional ballots.

Both McCormick and Casey have more than 3 million votes cast for them and each expressed optimism that once all votes are counted they would win.

"In the coming days the election results will be finalized," McCormick told his supporters in Pittsburgh Tuesday night. "And when they are we will look forward to a new agenda, a new America."

McCormick's campaign doubled down on the belief that the Republican will win:

"McCormick is up 30,679 votes with more to come, as ruby red Cambria County is still outstanding, McCormick communications director Elizabeth Gregory said in an Nov. 7, 2024, statement. "While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania."

In an interview on Fox News shortly after The Associated Press called the race Thursday, the President-elect Donald Trump-endorsed McCormick said “people want change.”

“They're deeply distressed by the skyrocketing prices, the wide-open border, the crime in our cities, the war on fossil fuels, and they want change and common-sense leadership and that's why I think they elected President Trump and I think that's why they have elected me,” McCormick said.

Casey's campaign noted shrinking margins in a statement Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024:

"The count in Pennsylvania is still continuing," Casey for Senate spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said. "Yesterday, the vote margin shrunk by 50,000 votes and this race is now within half a point, the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania. With tens of thousands more votes to be counted, we are committed to ensuring every Pennsylvanian's vote is heard and confident that at the end of that process, Senator Casey will be re-elected."

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McCormick had overtaken Casey with about 80% of the estimated votes counted just before midnight on Tuesday. Casey initially had a lead over McCormick when just about 40% of the estimated votes had been counted, propelled in part by mailed ballots that have historically favored Democrats. McCormick was doing better in votes cast on Election Day.

As of Friday morning, 98% of the vote had been counted and an estimated 159,000 ballots remained to be counted, NBC News reported. That remaining vote number can still change.

Besides Casey and McCormick, three independent candidates were on the ballot, but they all trailed significantly while combing for more than 2.5% of the vote tally.

The vote counting continued.

“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots," Casey spokesperson McDaniel said. "This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard."

About the Casey/McCormick race

Casey hails from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected office as auditor general and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point grad, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.

McCormick has accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO who lived in Connecticut.

Pennsylvania Democrats have found success against GOP rivals in the recent Senate and governor's races.

John Fetterman beat Oz in 2022 by 5 points, and Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano handily that year as well, becoming the first governor to be elected to succeed a member of his party since 1966.